Let's takle a look at the table first, then start a discussion:
The biggest changes are a bit depressing. The collapse in sales of Alt and Kölsch. Alt has been particularly hard, dropping from 6.6% of all beer sold to just 1.4%. Very worrying. Kölsch has only fared a little better, declining from 4.5% to 1.6%.The only real winner has been Weizen, which increased its sales six-fold over the period covered. Schwarzbier has come out of nowhere (well, out of the DDR, actually - about the same as nowhere as far as West Germans are concerned) to overtake both Alt and Kölsch, but still has minimal market penetration.
Export, which rallied surprisingly five years ago appears to be on the slide again. Pils looks to be past its peak and could be about to plummet floorwards. That's my prediction, anyway. As for what might replace it - who knows? I'm not Mystic Mogg.
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I'm not as pessimistic about the overall decline of Alt/Kölsch that the figures indicate. They obviously include both keg and cask versions and I'd guess it's the former that has taken the biggest hit from the rise in Pils, much like keg bitter was overtaken by lager in the 70s here. Who knows, it might even have the same effect, clearing the ground for the revival of cask versions of those styles.
1.5% of German consumption is still a hell of a lot of beer: there was still plenty going out on the waiters' trays in the Düsseldorf and Cologne brewpubs when I was there this summer.
Matt, sure the brewpubs are doing fine. But Alt and Kölsch are becoming niche products not really brewed by large breweries. Most of the big producers have closed.
5% of the market was a hell of a lot more beer.
Don't know what will take Pils's crown in a few decades, but can a most worrisome trend could be deducted from your chart?
In 2006 Pils had 60.3% market share and there are no figures for those mixed atrocities Germans seem to love. In 2008 Pils dropped to 55.2 and the mixed stuff records a 6.5%....
Hope I'm wrong...
Pivní Filosof, now that is a scary thought. I hope you're wrong, too.
With regards to what Pivni Filosof said about the mixed stuff. I remember starting studies in Germany in about 2000 when cola and other beer mixes were appearing (is Alsterwasser/Radler also included there?). All my German friends said this is horrible stuff that only underage teenagers are capable of consuming.
Now, when I have come back a couple of times during the last years, it seems some of my friends them do not mind occasional mix-drink. When browsing around drink shops there it worries me how much shelf-space these horrible drinks have occupied.
It would interesting to see these shares of beer-styles for bottled and tapped beer. I assume mix-drinks would have some 15-20 % share in the bottled section.
I fear that Pivni Filosif is right though the figures do appear in your table do they not? Those though I assume will be for pre-packaged beer mixes, so some of the other figures will include beer sold that was subsequently mixed with other things. That will depress the pils (and alt) figures even further and bump up the mixes. It shows a disturbing and somewhat confused pattern.
I share your concern about Koelsch and Alt. It is all too easy to assume a vibrant situation from an extrapolation taken from observations at the brew pubs. That's too misleading for words really.
I've written about how depressing the German beer scene is and the figues in your table give me little comfort. Things need a kick up the arse there.
No stats for Dunkel? Or is it lumped in with Schwartzbier?
Jeff, Dunkles is probably included in the Export figures.
The times I've been Germany, it was very clear to me that they like pils and 'light' beers as that is what 95% of my friends and in general people I know enjoy.. I was treated weird when I wanted something different.( This was in the Nuremberg/Nuemarkt de Oberfeltz area)
Looks to me they are following the light beer craze.
Even more profound was that my friends when over here in the US thought that Miller high Life was the best beer they have had; further they declared that this beer should be sold in Germany.
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