New numbers

If you've been paying the very vaguest of attention to my writings, you'll have spotted that I'm a bit number obsessed. A book called "Numbers!" which is pretty much all numbers is a bit of a clue.

I don't harvest numbers as aggressively as I once did. Partly because I've already netted many of the relevant ones.

Those I found today, probably don't sound so impressive. UK imports in terms of standard barrels*. I already had the bulk barrel numbers. Which is just the straight volume. Combined, however, they let me calculate the average OG of beer imported into the UK. Which was remarkably constant at a shade under 1053º.

No surprise there. As the vast majority came from Ireland in the form of Guinness Extra Stout. Which, at the time, was 1055º. Other imports were overwhelmingly continental Lager. Logically, that must have been weaker than Guinness to get the average OG down.

Looking at the ludicrous number of beer analyses I have, I see that one import, Carlsberg Pilsener, was just 1045º.

The past was such a different place.

But at least they still had our friends numbers to guide us.

UK beer imports 1930 - 1939
Year	bulk barrels	standard barrels	Average OG imports	Average OG UK beer
1930	1,522,906	1,464,082	1052.9	1042.9
1931	1,602,322	1,541,385	1052.9	1042.5
1932	1,373,450	1,320,171	1052.9	1041.0
1933	1,203,063	1,157,186	1052.9	1039.5
1934	1,276,270	1,220,877	1052.6	1041.0
1935	1,332,277	1,277,957	1052.8	1041.1
1936	1,392,457	1,335,982	1052.8	1041.0
1937	1,385,833	1,330,266	1052.8	1041.1
1938	1,163,046	1,112,737	1052.6	1041.0
1939	838,269	793,516	1052.1	1040.9
Sources:
Brewers' Almanack 1955, p. 50.
Brewers' Journal 1940, page 51 (published January 17th, 1940).

* As explained yesterday, 36 gallons with an OG of 1055º.

Average UK draught beer prices 1973 - 2017

What better way to kick off the New Year than a load of numbers? No, don't thank me. It's the least I could do.

Do you want some words as well? OK, I'll throw you a few. The 1970s weren't a great time in many ways. Especially when it came to inflation. In the ten years 1973 to 1982 the price of Bitter more than quadrupled. While in the following ten years it merely doubled.

I was surprised to see how much the price differential between Bitter and Lager varied. Starting at a massive 30% - incredibly poor value given that Bitter was stronger than Lager - it fell to just 8% in 1983, after which it rose again. Not sure why that was. Perhaps the introduction of stronger Lagers was behind the trend.

This is all very different from pre-WW II. Between the wars beer prices were very stable, with just a blip 1931-1933. Pre-WW I, prices were even more stable, not really changing at all for around 50 years. Which is why WW I, with its big price increases, must have come as a huge shock to drinkers.

Funnily enough, the table just about exactly covers my drinking years. Unlike Victorian drinkers, I was used to frequent increases in the price of a pint.

Average UK draught beer prices 1973 - 2017
Year	Bitter	Lager	% difference
1973	13	17	30.77%
1974	15	19	26.67%
1975	20	23	15.00%
1976	23	28	21.74%
1977	27	32	18.52%
1978	29	35	20.69%
1979	34	40	17.65%
1980	41	47	14.63%
1981	49	57	16.33%
1982	54	63	16.67%
1983	62	67	8.06%
1984	66	73	10.61%
1985	72	80	11.11%
1986	76	86	13.16%
1987	82	92	12.20%
1988	88	99	12.50%
1989	96	108	12.50%
1990	110	123	11.82%
1991	126	140	11.11%
1992	131	147	12.21%
1993	137	154	12.41%
1994	142	159	11.97%
1995	148	167	12.84%
1996	156	174	11.54%
1997	165	183	10.91%
1998	170	190	11.76%
1999	174	195	12.07%
2000	178	200	12.36%
2001	182	204	12.09%
2002	185	210	13.51%
2003	195	228	16.92%
2004	203	234	15.27%
2005	213	242	13.62%
2006	221	252	14.03%
2007	231	263	13.85%
2008	241	276	14.52%
2009	249	281	12.85%
2010	258	295	14.34%
2011	269	308	14.50%
2012	280	319	13.93%
2013	287	330	14.98%
2014	294	337	14.63%
2015	296	345	16.55%
2016	299	348	16.39%
2017	305	358	17.38%
Sources:
Statistical Handbook of the British Beer & Pub Association 2003, p. 44.
Statistical Handbook of the British Beer & Pub Association 2017, p. 45.

UK exports to the European Union 1985 - 1994

More lovely numbers. Dontcha just love them?

Probably not, if you're less of a weirdo than me. But what do I care? The whole point of this blog is saying all the things my family don't want to hear.

Though I have just been discussing UK beer exports with Alexei. Some of the weird ones from the 1970's and 1980's. Who would have guessed that the UK was exporting beer to Saudi Arabia? It's no surprise that exports to there dried up after 1979. But how on earth did 72 barrels head that way in 1982? I'd love to know the story behind that.

Anyway, getting back to the numbers that actually appear in the table, this set shows some fascinating trends. Like the slump in exports to Belgium. And the sudden boom in ones to France. I can't help thinking there must have been some specific reason for the sudden jump in 1994.  It's almost a tenfold increase.

And why did UK exports to Europe more than double in 1994? Oh right. It's to do with the introduction if the Single Market in 1993:

"Following the Introduction of the Single Market in January 1993 the method of recording exports to the European Union changed and the figures separated by a bold line are not comparable with earlier years."

Which doesn't make me much wiser. Were they just recording exports better, or did something really change. Hang on. Wouldn't that be when the personal allowance went up from a couple of bottles to a vanload? Is all that UK beer being sent to France getting no further than Calais and then coming back again?

I know that the figures for Danish beer exports to Germany are distorted that way. That virtually none of the beer "exported" is consumed in Germany. It's bought by Danes who hop over the border to take advantage of the cheaper price of alcohol in Germany.

UK exports to the European Union 1985 - 1994 (thousands of barrels)
Destination	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994
Belgium & Luxembourg	136.6	96.8	107.5	94.7	64.6	62.0	44.4	46.8	37.1	52.2
Cyprus	2.5	1.2	2.4	2.0	3.8	2.7	2.7	4.6	3.1	3.7
Denmark	0.6	0.2	0.7	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.7	3.7	2.6	66.4
France	10.8	8.9	8.3	9.7	14.2	15.6	15.2	17.8	22.1	196.6
Germany	24.6	19.3	22.6	24.5	26.4	29.1	28.7	31.2	17.3	19.1
Greece	0.3	0.2	0.7	3.0	5.8	14.5	12.6	13.7	10.9	9
Ireland	71	108	141	175.1	189.3	234.3	295.6	369.8	246.7	387.8
Italy	51.5	54.3	50.2	43.8	40.6	47.2	56.3	79.0	85.1	144.7
Netherlands	10.9	10.8	11.9	26.4	28.1	42.2	70.0	37.5	10.4	30.6
Portugal	0.7	1.9	4.4	2.9	2.0	3.5	2.6	2.7	1.3	1.8
Spain	4.1	6.9	9.9	14.0	19.1	46.5	38.2	52.3	65.8	104.8
Sweden	2	2.3	2.5	2.9	5.0	6.8	19.2	23.1	19.8	26.5
Total	311	307	357	394.4	390.6	495.4	564.4	654.5	499.3	1,045.1
Sources:
"Statistical Handbook 1988", page 9.
BBPA Statistical Handbook 1995, page 9.
BBPA Statistical Handbook 1999, page 9.

Ale & Stout vs Lager sales 1960 - 2016

One of my recent free Fridays was spent scanning the BBPA Statistical Handbook. Loads of lovely juicy numbers in there.

All ripe for harvesting. But being off galivanting south of the equator, I'd not had time to sharpen my scythe and take to the fields. Though obviously you don't harvest fruit with a scythe. OK, forget about that analogy. I've got numbers, you're going to see them.

If you can remember back a few weeks, I scored a free copy of the 2017 BBPA Statistical Handbook through the British Guild of Beer Writers. If anyone does, I deserve the freebie. Sad to say, it's one of my favourite books. I can still remember the day Henry gave me a copy of the 1928 Brewers' Almanack (the previous incarnation of the book). It changed my view of British beer forever.

And gave me a stack of numbers to play with. Not that I needed any encouragement to get all hot and sticky with numbers.

Today's digital fun was in the form of beer style share. The 2017 Handbook has the figures for the market share of Lager and Ale & Stout for every year from 2000, plus 1970, 1980 and 1990. Interesting. But I like to take a longer view. And because I have a collection of the Handbooks and Almanacks, I can go back further and fill in the gaps.

This time in graph rather than rough number form.

Don't you just love data?

Bye bye badman

Been such a good boy today. Got up early and wrote three recipes before breakfast - that's me done until the end of March with watery Whitbread recipes from the that most exhilirating of decades beer-wise, the 1950's. I've saved the best until last, dropping through the gravities from the watery to the less than watery, before plunging the real, er, watery depths. Can't wait, can you?

I have to bash out a load of this stuff. Since I unwisely started wearing the grindstone of daily posting as a necklace, long holidays have become a logistical Haversham. Can't guarantee time, inclination, sobriety or net connection to ever post while off viking. I preload posts for the full stretch. A 10-day trip is bad enough. Two weeks of posts needed before off-fucking. 15 days means near enough three full weeks worth of bollocks.

Why don't I simply stop posting every day? You don't know me if you'd ask that question. Obsesssive isn't just my middle name. It's like the full name of a Leeds fan of a side that won the league with 11 brothers from the Obsessive family*.

Wrote another three posts this evening. Four, including this. Ten more days until I travel. Sixteen more posts to write. That's almost one a day.

Numbers**. Can never give those tricky temptresses a rest.




* For those of you non-1970's curious, that means Ronald Obsessive Obsessive Obsessive Obsessive Obsessive Obsessive Obsessive Obsessive Obsessive Obsessive Obsessive Pattinson.


** I really have a book that has more numbers than a lottery.

I'm number two

. . . in the ebuzzing wine and beer blogs rankings for April. It's the highest position I've ever had.

I'm sure it won't last. I can't think up enough shouty posts on a regular basis. You need those to attract attention. Numbers don't work, unfortunately. If they did, I'd be number one every month.

Have any suggestions for what I could shout about this month? Let me know. Otherwise I'll be in for a depressing slip down the rankings in May.

Numbers will never be cheaper

That's a promise. What's the most festive thing you can imagine? Not rubbish like tinsel, Santa, presents or trees. No, there's something I find far more festive . . . . . numbers!

You too can own numbers. Lots of them. In very convenient book form. And just numbers. None of those annoying words or sentence things. Just numbers.

And what could be even better than numbers? No, not more numbers, that would be too much of a good thing. Cheap numbers! That's what everyone wants.

Which is why I've slashed the price of the physical version of "Numbers!" by a massive 20%!

Buy "Numbers!" now! It's cheap!

And because I'm in a generous mood, I'm reducing the ebook version by even more! Yes, the electronic version is now discounted by a massive 50%!

Buy the "Numbers!" ebook now! It's ridiculously cheap!

British beer production and average OG 1900 - 1933

It seems like there's something I've not done for a while. Something that used to be very important. (No, it's not humour or entertainment.) I remember - a big fat juicy table, dripping with number grease. Best put that right.

My weekend was great fun. I spent it scanning 1920's and 1930's editions of the Brewers' Journal. "What are you doing with those stinky books, dad?" Lexie asked. "Harvesting numbers." "Dad, that sounds really boring."

It's not exactly my idea of fun, either. But the information I grab is. There was some really useful stuff, hidden away in the old Journals. That's filled a few holes in my Brewers' Almanack derived tables. Like the one below. The larger set of data has revealed some intriguing points.

The first thing I'd like to point out is the disparity in average OG in the different parts of the UK on the eve of WW I. The average OG in Scotland was four points lower than in England and a massive 18 points lower than in Ireland. You can blame Guinness for the high figure in Ireland. Their flagship Extra Stout had an OG of 1075º.

But what I find really fascinating is the difference in the gravity dropped caused by WW I. Between 1914 and 1921, the average OG in Scotland only dropped 5 points. While in England it dropped by 10 points. That's a fall in gravity of 19.3% in England and just 11.2% in Scotland. I wonder why that was.

I've a possible explanation. Exports. The proportion of beer exported was much higher in Scotland. And what was the difference between export and domestic beer between the wars? Export beer continued to be brewed at pre-WW I strengths.

I've sort of got figures for Scottish exports in the 1920's and 1930's. Sort of. I've figures for the number of barrels upon which no duty was charges. The usual reason for that is that the beer was exported. But that's not the only one. The figures for duty-free barrels is about 10% higher than the figures for beer exported. I'll be returning to these figures in detail later, but one point is very significant: after 1927 Scotland was exporting more beer than England.

Beer produced by brewers for sale and average OG 1900 - 1933
	England		Scotland		Ireland		United Kingdom
Year	bulk barrels	average OG	bulk barrels	average OG	bulk barrels	average OG	bulk barrels	average OG
1900	32,146,769	-	2,289,048	-	2,669,225	-	37,105,042	1054.93
1905	30,594,189	1052.54	2,021,374	1049.6	2,799,960	1063.49	35,415,523	1053.23
1910	29,284,045	1052.3	1,956,659	1048.48	3,059,210	1064.78	34,299,914	1053.2
1911	29,679,204	1052.03	2,028,710	1048.18	3,215,374	1065.22	34,923,288	1053.02
1912	30,991,776	1051.76	2,153,569	1048.11	3,330,174	1065.43	36,475,519	1052.72
1913	30,758,800	1051.52	2,119,666	1047.85	3,417,851	1065.73	36,296,317	1052.64
1914	31,737,384	1051.69	2,288,481	1047.67	3,532,902	1065.93	37,558,767	1052.80
1915	29,310,783	1051.16	2,042,477	1046.85	3,412,520	1065.93	34,765,780	1052.35
1916	26,914,428	1050.49	1,917,148	1046.45	3,279,032	1066.43	32,110,608	1051.88
1917	25,497,825	1047.01	1,816,003	1043.16	2,850,170	1065.69	30,163,998	1048.54
1918	16,340,250	1038.25	1,141,114	1036.74	1,603,679	1057.89	19,085,043	1039.81
1919	20,133,048	1029.35	1,325,439	1029.77	1,806,046	1044.43	23,264,533	1030.55
1920	29,891,845	1038.57	2,186,604	1038.83	2,969,498	1043.35	35,047,947	1039.41
1921	28,927,178	1041.72	2,096,080	1042.31	3,481,312	1050.18	34,504,570	1042.61
1922	25,468,663	1042.21	1,770,175	1041.68	2,939,893	1049.44	30,178,731	1042.88
1923	22,334,328	1042.82	1,598,339	1041.36	15,984	1037.5	23,948,651	1042.72
1924	23,609,228	1043.18	1,800,687	1041.27	15,102	1037.69	25,425,017	1043.04
1925	24,827,074	1043.24	1,895,535	1041.53	12,216	1038.4	26,734,825	1043.12
1926	24,871,187	1043.34	1,884,933	1041.87	9,490	1036.91	26,765,610	1043.23
1927	23,418,640	1043.35	1,673,576	1042.3	8,245	1038.11	25,100,461	1043.28
	England & N. Ireland		Scotland				United Kingdom
1924	23,624,330	1043.17	1,800,687	1041.27			25,425,017	1043.04
1925	24,839,290	1043.24	1,895,535	1041.53			26,734,825	1043.12
1926	24,880,677	1043.34	1,884,933	1041.87			26,765,610	1043.23
1927	23,426,885	1043.35	1,673,576	1042.30			25,100,461	1043.28
1928	23,610,029	1043.34	1,749,725	1042.95			25,359,754	1043.31
1929	22,803,003	1043.20	1,727,152	1043.47			24,530,155	1043.21
1930	23,180,543	1043.01	1,803,625	1043.55			24,984,168	1043.05
1931	22,129,205	1042.68	1,651,579	1042.84			23,780,784	1042.69
1932	19,277,230	1041.14	1,398,153	1041.86			20,675,383	1041.19
1933	16,639,123	1039.59	1,204,456	1041.07			17,843,579	1039.69
Sources:
Brewers' Journal 1920, page 345.
Brewers' Journal 1921, page 246.
Brewers' Almanack 1928, page 110.
Brewers' Journal 1934, page 11.

Wondering why beer production fell so much in 1932 and 1933? A disastrous increase in beer tax which caused output to fall so much that, in fact, less tax was collected. There's a lesson there.

I'll be returning to numbers soon. I've neglected them for far too long.

Irish brewery numbers

Time for more stuff about Ireland. Numbers. Haven't had many of them for a while. Irish brewery numbers, lets go with that.

Where to start? How about the 19th century. I've loads of good numbers for that. If you're good I'll move on to the 20th century, for which I've even more numbers. No, don't thank me. It's my contribution to the well-being of the world.

I know you're really excited to see them, so here they are in all their numbery glory . . . numbers:

Irish breweries and their output 1820 - 1901
Year	malt consumed (thousands of bushels)	No. of breweries	estimated output (barrels)	average output per brewery	UK beer production (barrels)	% brewed in Ireland
1820	1,321		660,500
1821	1,205		602,500
1822	1,396		698,000
1823	1,498		749,000
1824	1,366		683,000
1825	1,337		668,500
1826	1,411		705,500
1827	1,513		756,500
1828	1,403		701,500
1829	1,343		671,500
1830	1,131		565,500
1831	1,494	215	747,000	3,474
1832	1,543	216	771,500	3,572
1833	1,683	231	841,500	3,643
1834	2,005	240	1,002,500	4,177
1835	1,830	245	915,000	3,735
1836	2,033	251	1,016,500	4,050
1837	1,801	248	900,500	3,631
1838	1,934	243	967,000	3,979
1839	1,814	231	907,000	3,926
1840	1,279	191	639,500	3,348	16,057,591	3.98%
1841	1,030	166	515,000	3,102	15,936,421	3.23%
1842	993	145	496,500	3,424	14,680,815	3.38%
1843	1,010	138	505,000	3,659	14,431,267	3.50%
1844	1,095	122	547,500	4,488	14,294,118	3.83%
1845	1,277	115	638,500	5,552	14,790,006	4.32%
1846	1,465	118	732,500	6,208	15,062,383	4.86%
1847	1,233	109	616,500	5,656	16,415,675	3.76%
1848	1,280	101	640,000	6,337	14,649,395	4.37%
1849	1,205	96	602,500	6,276	14,691,734	4.10%
1850	1,165	95	582,500	6,132	15,478,569	3.76%
1851	1,268	97	634,000	6,536
1852	1,266	98	633,000	6,459
1853	1,308	97	654,000	6,742
1854	1,315	101	657,500	6,510
1855	1,376	104	688,000	6,615
1856	1,542	107	771,000	7,206
1857	2,084	104	1,042,000	10,019	17,984,773	5.79%
1858	1,918	102	959,000	9,402
1859	2,373	109	1,186,500	10,885
1860	2,280	109	1,140,000	10,459	20,340,096	5.60%
1861	2,120	93	1,060,000	11,398
1862	2,436	108	1,218,000	11,278
1863	2,365	104	1,182,500	11,370	20,081,408	5.89%
1864	2,536	95	1,268,000	13,347	21,360,461	5.94%
1865	2,749	90	1,374,500	15,272	22,546,889	6.10%
1866	3,001	91	1,500,500	16,489	25,388,600	5.91%
1867	3,005	87	1,502,500	17,270
1868	2,872	81	1,436,000	17,728
1869	3,001	80	1,500,500	18,756
1870	3,403	80	1,701,500	21,269
1871	3,127	79	1,563,500	19,791	26,431,760	5.92%
1872	3,051	74	1,525,500	20,615
1873	3,520	74	1,760,000	23,784
1874	3,558	68	1,779,000	26,162
1875	3,816	65	1,908,000	29,354	31,014,381	6.15%
1876	3,935	62	1,967,500	31,734
1877	4,108	61	2,054,000	33,672
1878	3,985	59	1,992,500	33,771
1879	3,662	56	1,831,000	32,696
1880	3,966	53	1,983,000	37,415	30,742,649	6.45%
1881	3,779	52	1,889,500	36,337	27,352,361	6.91%
1882	4,207	54	2,103,500	38,954
1883	5,157	48	2,578,500	53,719
1884	4,299	43	2,149,500	49,988
1885	4,291	42	2,145,500	51,083	27,986,493
1886	4,187	43	2,093,500	48,686
1887	4,411	42	2,205,500	52,512
1888	4,477	42	2,238,500	53,298
1889	4,732	40	2,366,000	59,150
1890	4,696	40	2,348,000	58,700	30,808,315	7.62%
1891	4,905	41	2,452,500	59,817
1892	4,904	39	2,452,000	62,872
1893	5,078	36	2,539,000	70,528
1894	4,916	36	2,458,000	68,278
1895	5,071	37	2,535,500	68,527	34,404,287	7.37%
1896	5,258	37	2,629,000	71,054
1897	5,114	38	2,557,000	67,289
1898	5,443	40	2,721,500	68,038
1899	5,552	39	2,776,000	71,179
1900	5,641	38	2,820,500	74,224	37,105,042	7.60%
1901	5,978	38	2,989,000	78,658
Sources:
"The Dynamics of the international brewing industry since 1800" by Richard George Wilson, Terence Richard Gourvish, 1998, pages 121 - 122
“Bericht über der Welt Ausstellung zu Paris im Jahre 1867, volume 7”, 1868, page 119.
"Statistics of British commerce" by Braithwaite Poole, 1852, page 6.
Brewers' Almanack 1928, p. 110

You're expecting some sort of analysis, I bet. Er, steady decline in the number of breweries, apart from a small blip in the 1850's and 1860's. Increase in output, so obviously an increase in the average output per brewery.

The 20th century is even more exciting. It's coming soon. (As soon as I've copied all the numbers from the Brewers' Almanack.)