Franconia 2011 part two

 More Franconia, with a visit to Barnikel Brauerei in Frensdorf and Gold-Ochsenbrauerei in Spielbach. Along with a walk through Rothenburg ob der Tauber. 

UK beer sales and strength 1961 - 2024

Yet more numbers today. And more to come. I need to build up a buffer of posts to cover my trip to Brazil in a couple of weeks. I'm really looking forward to getting away from the cold weather.

This time I didn't have any problem with older numbers. So I've added some going back to 1961. The only slight hiccup was with the sales figures, which I had to convert from barrels to hectolitres.

Let's start with sales. Which in 1961 were just starting to increase after more than a decade of decline. That rise in sales continued until 1979. Since when, other than a blip in the late 1980s, has been falling steadily. And is now below the level of 1961. The drop is more considerable, really, given the substantial increase in population between 1961 and today (52.8 to 69.5 million.).

The fall in sales between the 1979 peak and 2024 is 38%. Will they ever increase again? I wouldn't like to guess. It's impossible to predict how thirsty drinkers will be for beer in 50 years' time.

You'll have noticed that beer strength is measured in two different ways. First in original gravity, then in ABV. There's a reason for that. The change in the tax system from one based on OG before fermentation to one based on the ABV of the finished beer. The numbers are derived from the tax paid.

During the OG period, there's bugger all variation: low of 1036.9º, high of 1038.2. Just 3.4%. In the ABV period, it jumps around a lot more: 4.06% to 4.57%. That's an 11.2% variation. There's no clear long-term trend, either. With it going up and down a few times. I've no idea why that should be. Recent tax changes favouring beer up to 3.4% ABV might have an impact in the next couple of years. 

UK beer sales and strength 1961 - 2024
Year	thousand hl	Average strength % abv	Average gravity
1961	47,100		1037.41
1962	47,500		1037.70
1963	47,800		1037.70
1964	50,100		1037.66
1965	50,100		1037.67
1966	51,300		1037.63
1967	52,200		1037.46
1968	53,400		1037.36
1969	55,700		1037.14
1970	57,302		1036.90
1971	59,647		1036.90
1972	60,500		1036.90
1973	63,600		1037.00
1974	65,400		1037.10
1975	66,600		1037.30
1976	68,000		1037.50
1977	67,000		1037.50
1978	68,200		1037.60
1979	69,500		1037.60
1980	67,095		1037.60
1981	63,600		1037.30
1982	62,000		1037.20
1983	62,600		1037.20
1984	62,400		1037.40
1985	61,815		1037.40
1986	62,289		1037.50
1987	62,803		1038.00
1988	63,277		1037.70
1989	63,215		1038.20
1990	65,207		1038.00
1991	63,073		1037.70
1992	60,881		1037.30
1993	59,177		1037.43
2000	56,570	4.57%
2001	56,659	4.56%
2002	57,512	4.53%
2003	58,099	4.49%
2004	58,330	4.53%
2005	57,121	4.45%
2006	56,377	4.47%
2007	54,261	4.48%
2008	51,523	4.45%
2009	49,448	4.40%
2010	47,707	4.48%
2011	46,605	4.42%
2012	44,239	4.17%
2013	44,186	4.14%
2014	44,336	4.16%
2015	44,139	4.20%
2016	43,734	4.21%
2017	44,051	4.06%
2018	45,306	4.08%
2019	46,012	4.16%
2020	39,493	4.26%
2021	41,819	4.10%
2022	44,217	4.28%
2023	43,485	4.32%
2024	43,153
Sources:
Brewers' Almanack 1971, p. 45
Statistical Handbook of the British Beer & Pub Association 2005, p. 7
The Brewers' Society Statistical Handbook 1988, page 9.

 

UK sales of packaged beer by strength and type

More lovely numbers today. Again about beer sales by type. But this time of packaged beer (bottled and canned) rather than draught.

I would have included some older numbers as well. Except in the older figures the types were defined differently. Which is a bit irritating.

Let's look at Bitter first. Which is now split into four classes. I assume that the first three remain the same:

Class I <= 1034º
Class II 1035º - 1039º
Class III >= 1040º

I'm guessing that class IV was >=1050º.

Just as with draught beer, since 1990 there's been a noticeable shift from Ordinary Bitter to Best Bitter. With the latter taking the lead in 2011. The strongest class Starts out with minimal sales in 1990, dropping to nothing in 2011. Not really sure what the pooint of the category is when there's nothing in it for half the years.

The Stout figures are fascinating. Kicking off with a very reasonable 7% in 1971. But falling to not much over 1% in the early 2000s, before rising again in the 2010s. There is a simple explanation for the collapse: Guinness.

That 7% figure will have been mostly bottled Guinness. Which was available in every pub. At a time when draught Guinness wasn't very common. The rise of draught Guinness will have really eaten into bottled Guinness sales. Hence the dramatic drop. That doesn't explain recovery in the 2020s, though.

In Lager there's also a shift from standard to premium strength. With the latter taking the lead in 2000. Ending in 2024 with sales almost treble those of Cooking Lager. While the super-strong Lagers of class IV show a steady decline from not very much to fuck all.

In the last few years there's been growth on low- and non-alcoholic beer. And, in 2024, it caught up with bottled Stout. Considering how much it's been pushed and how many brands there are out there, its market share isn't that impressive.

I wonder where all the trendy craft IPAs and Pale Ales fit into these figures. I'm guessing that they're lumped in with Bitter.

UK sales of packaged beer by strength and type
Year	Bitter		Strong ale & barley wine	Stout	Lager			No/low alc beer	Total packaged
					standard	premium
1971	16.1		0.6	7.0	2.8			-	26.5
1980	9.7		0.5	3.2	5.4	2.3		-	21.2
	Bitter I + II	Bitter III	Bitter IV		Lager I + II	Lager III	Lager IV
1990	5.5	2.4	0.2	1.7	9.9	7.9		0.8	28.4
2000	3.9	2.2	0.1	1.4	13.3	15.3	1.4	0.2	37.7
2001	3.7	2.3	0.1	1.4	13.8	16.7	1.3	0.2	39.4
2002	3.4	2.3	0.1	1.3	14.3	18.6	1.3	0.2	41.4
2003	3.3	2.3	0.1	1.4	14.9	19.5	1.3	0.2	42.9
2004	3.2	2.2	0.1	1.4	15.6	20.0	1.3	0.2	44.0
2005	3.1	2.3	0.1	1.3	16.6	20.1	1.2	0.2	44.8
2006	3.0	2.4	0.1	1.4	17.5	20.8	1.1	0.2	46.3
2007	3.2	2.4	0.1	1.4	18.8	20.5	1.0	0.2	47.6
2008	3.2	2.6	0.1	1.4	19.8	21.7	1.0	0.2	49.8
2009	3.2	2.8	0.1	1.5	19.6	21.9	0.7	0.2	50.1
2010	3.0	3.0	0.1	1.6	20.1	23.1	0.8	0.2	51.8
2011	2.9	3.1	0.0	1.5	19.5	24.0	0.8	0.3	52.2
2012	2.8	3.4	0.0	1.6	19.1	24.3	0.8	0.2	52.3
2013	2.9	3.7	0.0	1.6	20.1	24.4	0.8	0.2	53.6
2014	2.7	4.0	0.0	1.4	20.2	24.9	0.6	0.3	54.2
2015	2.6	4.5	0.0	1.7	19.2	26.0	0.5	0.3	55.0
2016	2.5	4.9	0.0	1.7	18.2	27.2	0.4	0.4	55.3
2017	2.3	4.9	0.0	1.7	18.1	28.8	0.4	0.5	56.6
2018	2.1	4.9	0.0	1.6	17.6	30.8	0.4	0.7	58.1
2019	1.9	4.7	0.0	1.5	16.5	33.1	0.4	0.9	58.9
2020	2.5	6.4	0.0	2.4	22.9	43.8	0.4	1.1	79.6
2021	2.2	5.9	0.0	2.3	19.2	41.0	0.4	1.3	72.3
2022	1.7	5.0	0.0	1.9	14.8	36.9	0.3	1.4	62.0
2023	1.5	4.8	0.0	2.1	14.0	37.3	0.3	1.6	61.5
2024	1.6	4.5	0.0	2.1	13.1	37.6	0.3	2.1	61.4
Source:
The Brewers' Society Statistical Handbook 2025, page 16.

 

Let's Brew Wednesday - 1932 Youngs XXX Ale

Stronger than either of the Bitters was Youngs Burton Ale, XXX. Probably their strongest regular draught beer, too.

The recipe is similar to that of X Ale. Identical, sometimes, as they were often parti-gyled together. Fullers also parti-gyled their Mild and Burton in the 1930s. Though large London brewers like Barclay Perkins and Whitbread, had separate gyles for their Burtons.

Note that XXX is also adjunct-free. Just two types of mild malt, a touch of crystal, No. 3 invert and caramel.  Pretty simple stuff.

There’s nothing very complicate about the hops, either. Just two types: East Kent from the 1931 season and English of unspecified region and age. Though they were cold stored and probably not from the most recent harvest.

Was this aged? I don’t think so. No more than a couple of weeks, anyway, between racking and consumption. 

1932 Youngs XXX Ale
mild malt	9.25 lb	79.03%
crystal malt 60 L	0.875 lb	7.48%
No. 3 invert sugar	1.50 lb	12.82%
caramel 1000 SRM	0.08 lb	0.68%
Fuggles 120 min	2.00 oz
Fuggles 30 min	2.00 oz
OG	1056
FG	1016.5
ABV	5.23
Apparent attenuation	70.54%
IBU	44
SRM	18.5
Mash at	152º F
Sparge at	170º F
Boil time	120 minutes
pitching temp	59º F
Yeast	WLP002 English Ale

Learn more about brewing at Youngs from former brewer John Hatch. 

Chapman hops in 1880

On with Chapman's hops.

There aren’t as many of them as at some other breweries. Either two or three two types of copper hops per beer. All but one of them English. And reasonably fresh, with the oldest only from 1878. The majority from Mid-Kent or Kent. Interestingly, all the English hops are from the South: Kent, Sussex and Hampshire.

The cheapest beer, X Ale, used the oldest hops, with none from the most recent harvest. It also had what would have been the cheapest hops: those from California. The stronger Mild, XX Ale, contained noticeably better hops, from Mid-Kent and Sussex.

Only the Pale Ales and Stock Ale received dry hops. In all three cases very fresh hops, no more than a few months old, were employed. 

Chapman hops in 1880
Beer	Style	hop 1	hop 2	hop 3	dry hops
X	Mild	Kent 1878	Calif. 1879
XX	Mild	Sussex 1880	Mid Kent 1878	Mid Kent 1878
XXX	Stock Ale	Sussex 1880	Mid Kent 1878	Mid Kent 1878	Hants 1880
AK	Pale Ale	Kent 1878	Hants 1880		Kent 1880
PA	Pale Ale	Kent 1879	Hants 1880		Kent 1880
S	Stout	Sussex 1880	Mid Kent 1878	Mid Kent 1878
Source:
Chapman brewing record.

 

John Hatch interview part two

John Hatch describes more of Young's brewing processes, including mashing and sparging. He also talks about life after Youngs closure and the scrap brewery he built to continue brewing on the site. 

Excise duty rates in the EU and UK

Some more numbers I've plucked from the BBPA Statistical Handbook 2025. This time comparing the tax rates amongst European countries.

I've sorted the table in ascending order of beer tax rates. It makes for interesting reading. No surprise that the UK and Ireland are at the top end. With only Finland having higher tax.

I already knew that beer tax was low in Germany. But not that low. Only in one country in the table is it lower: Bulgaria. And even then only marginally so. I'm gobsmacked that the tax is higher in Czechia. Who would have guessed that?

Here in the Netherlands, while the tax is a third of that in the UK, it's still quite high compared to most EU countries. And four times higher than in Germany. It's no wonder beer is so much cheaper in German supermarkets than here.

I was surprised at how many EU countries have zero tax on wine. Just over half - 14 of 27. Pretty much all of them being countries which produce large quantities of wine. With the one exception of Luxembourg. 

Excise duty rates in the EU and UK
Country	Beer pence per pint at 5% abv	Wine pence per 75cl bottle at 12% abv	Spirits £ per 70cl bottle at 40% abv	VAT
Bulgaria	4.4	0	1.3	20
Germany	4.5	0	3.1	19
Luxembourg	4.5	0	2.6	17
Spain	4.7	0	2.2	21
Romania	6.1	1.3	2.5	19
Czechia	7.2	0	3.6	21
Slovakia	8.5	0	3.5	23
Malta	10.9	12.9	3.2	18
Hungary	11.2	0	3.5	27
Austria	11.4	0	2.8	20
Belgium	11.4	47	7	21
Portugal	11.5	0	3.8	23
Croatia	12.6	0	1.9	25
Cyprus	14.3	0	2.2	19
Poland	14.5	32.5	4.4	23
Denmark	15.5	94.8	4.7	25
Italy	17.1	0	2.4	22
France	19.3	2.6	4.5	20
Netherlands	19.3	60.1	4.3	21
Latvia	23.3	84.2	4.6	21
Lithuania	26.1	159.5	6.5	21
Greece	28.5	0	5.7	24
Slovenia	30.8	0	3.3	22
Estonia	33.3	102.4	4.9	22
Sweden	47.9	164.2	10.9	25
UK (draught beer)	53.3	265.9	9.2	20
Ireland	53.6	266.8	10	23
UK (packaged beer)	61.9
Finland	86.1	286.4	13	25.5
Source:
BBPA Statistical Handbook 2025, page 58.

 

UK draught beer by type and strength 1971 - 2024

A slightly different table today. Covering a longer period than the last period, but only for draught beer.

Between the mid-1970s and 2024, the proportion of draught beer fell by 50%. That's a pretty big change. And obviously bad news for cask beer, which is only available in draught form.

I quick word about the classes. These are:

Class I <= 1034º
Class II 1035º - 1039º
Class III >= 1040º

Ordinary Bitter - that under 1040º - saw the biggest drop. From 26% of beer sales in 1990 to just 5.5% in 2024. In contrast, Bitter of 1040º and above saw its share slightly increase between 2000 and 2024. Despite falling during the early 2000s. Indicating a clear move in Bitter drinkers from Ordinary to Best Bitter.

There was a similar upgrading in Lager, though it took place somewhat later, after 2012. And after the pandemic, the switch was even more dramatic, with stronger Lager outstripping Cooking Lager. Though, with the recent changes in the tax rate for weaker beers which has seen the strength of several big Lager brands reduced that may well have changed in 2025.

The second table just looks at percentages of draught sales. Which shows better how the different styles have been faring.

I was surprised to see that, in 2000, bottom-fermenting beer barely outsold top-fermenting: 53% to 47%. By 2024, that was 64% to 34%. But that's a fall since Lager's peak in 2021, when it was 66%. Interestingly, it wasn't a revival of Bitter that ate into Lager's slice, but Stout.

After 2000, Stout's share of the draught market was very stable at around 7%. Then rose sharply from 2022, hitting 12% in 2024. Which is a pretty dramatic change. With Bitter's share continuing to fall, Stout is starting to breathe down its neck. 

It will be very interesting to see what happens over the next few years. Especially if Stout will continue to chew away at both Bitter and Lager. If the trends of the last couple of years continue, Stout might outstrip Bitter by 2030. Wouldn't that be weird?

UK draught beer by type and strength 1971 - 2024
Year	Mild	Bitter standard	Bitter premium +stout		Lager standard	Lager premium	Bitter total	Lager total	Total draught
1971	17.7	31.3	17.4		7.1			7.1	73.5
1972	15.9	31.1	17.8		8.6			8.6	73.4
1973	14.2	30.6	17.0		11.3			11.3	73.1
1974	13.8	30.6	16.8		12.1	0.5		12.6	73.8
1975	13.3	31.0	15.9		14.9	0.7		15.6	75.8
1976	12.6	30.7	15.2		17.3	1.2		18.5	77.0
1977	12.7	32.0	14.8		17.4	1.6		19.0	78.5
1978	11.9	31.8	13.8		18.8	1.8		20.6	78.1
1979	11.4	31.5	13.2		20.2	1.9		22.1	78.2
1980	8.6	34.9	12.3		21.0	2.0		23.0	78.8
Year	Mild	Bitter I + II	Bitter premium +stout		Lager I + II	Lager III	Bitter total	Lager total	Total draught
1982	8.0	38.0	9.1		22.0	2.3		24.3	79.4
1983	7.3	36.5	8.7		23.5	2.5		26.0	78.5
1984	6.9	34.8	8.6		25.1	2.8		27.9	78.2
1985	6.4	33.2	8.6		25.7	3.3		29.0	77.2
1986	5.9	31.2	8.6		26.2	3.9		30.1	75.8
1987	5.3	29.0	8.7		26.7	4.6		31.3	74.3
1988	4.9	27.6	8.6		27.0	4.9		31.9	73.0
Year	Mild	Bitter I + II	Bitter III	Stout	Lager I + II	Lager III	Bitter total	Lager total	Total draught
1990	4.1	25.8	8.9		27.2	5.3		32.5	71.6
2000	1.7	19.6	3.6	4.4	24.9	8.2	23.2	33.1	62.3
2001	1.5	18.3	3.3	4.3	24.6	8.4	21.6	33.0	60.6
2002	1.4	17.1	3.2	4.2	24.4	8.3	20.3	32.7	58.6
2003	1.2	15.9	3.0	3.9	24.7	8.5	18.9	33.2	57.1
2004	1.1	15.0	2.9	3.8	24.9	8.3	17.9	33.2	56.0
2005	1.0	14.2	2.9	3.8	25.2	8.2	17.1	33.4	55.2
2006	0.9	13.3	2.8	3.7	25.3	7.8	16.1	33.1	53.7
2007	0.8	12.9	3.0	3.7	24.8	7.3	15.9	32.1	52.4
2008	0.7	12.3	3.0	3.7	23.7	6.8	15.3	30.5	50.2
2009	0.6	12.2	3.2	3.6	23.7	6.6	15.4	30.3	49.9
2010	0.5	11.4	3.2	3.5	23.1	6.5	14.6	29.6	48.2
2011	0.5	11.6	3.1	3.3	22.8	6.6	14.7	29.4	47.8
2012	0.3	11.6	3.2	3.2	22.5	6.9	14.8	29.4	47.7
2013	0.3	11.1	3.3	3.1	21.7	6.9	14.4	28.6	46.4
2014	0.3	10.6	3.4	3.1	20.8	7.7	14.0	28.5	45.8
2015	0.3	10.3	3.7	3.0	19.7	8.2	14.0	27.9	45.1
2016	0.3	9.8	3.7	3.0	19.0	8.9	13.5	27.9	44.7
2017	0.3	9.1	3.8	3.0	18.0	9.2	12.9	27.2	43.4
2018	0.3	8.4	3.7	2.9	17.4	9.3	12.1	26.7	41.9
2019	0.2	7.9	3.6	3.0	16.7	9.7	11.5	26.4	41.1
2020	0.1	3.8	1.8	1.4	8.0	5.4	5.6	13.4	20.4
2021	0.1	4.5	2.7	2.0	10.1	8.3	7.2	18.4	27.7
2022	0.04	5.8	3.9	3.2	13.0	12.0	9.7	25.0	38.0
2023	0.04	5.7	3.9	3.8	12.0	13.0	9.6	25.0	38.5
2024	0.05	5.5	3.7	4.6	11.1	13.6	9.2	24.7	38.6
Source:
BBPA Statistical Handbook 2025, page 15.
The Brewers' Society Statistical Handbook 1980, page 10.
The Brewers' Society Statistical Handbook 1988, page 16.

UK % of draught beer by style
Year	Mild	Stout	Bitter	Lager
2000	2.73%	7.06%	37.24%	53.13%
2001	2.48%	7.10%	35.64%	54.46%
2002	2.39%	7.17%	34.64%	55.80%
2003	2.10%	6.83%	33.10%	58.14%
2004	1.96%	6.79%	31.96%	59.29%
2005	1.81%	6.88%	30.98%	60.51%
2006	1.68%	6.89%	29.98%	61.64%
2007	1.53%	7.06%	30.34%	61.26%
2008	1.39%	7.37%	30.48%	60.76%
2009	1.20%	7.21%	30.86%	60.72%
2010	1.04%	7.26%	30.29%	61.41%
2011	1.05%	6.90%	30.75%	61.51%
2012	0.63%	6.71%	31.03%	61.64%
2013	0.65%	6.68%	31.03%	61.64%
2014	0.66%	6.77%	30.57%	62.23%
2015	0.67%	6.65%	31.04%	61.86%
2016	0.67%	6.71%	30.20%	62.42%
2017	0.69%	6.91%	29.72%	62.67%
2018	0.72%	6.92%	28.88%	63.72%
2019	0.49%	7.30%	27.98%	64.23%
2020	0.49%	6.86%	27.45%	65.69%
2021	0.36%	7.22%	25.99%	66.43%
2022	0.11%	8.42%	25.53%	65.79%
2023	0.10%	9.87%	24.94%	64.94%
2024	0.13%	11.92%	23.83%	63.99%
Source:
BBPA Statistical Handbook 2025, page 15.