World beer production at the start of WW I

This must rank as one of the simplest predictions of all time: that WW I would knock back beer production. It certainly did that. Probably to an even greater extent than the author anticipated.

"THE CONSUMPTION OF BEER.
PROBABLE DECREASE OWING TO THE WAR.
The ultimate effects upon the brewing industry are difficult estimate, states the Allied Brewery Traders' Circular. The consumption of beer in the country must almost certainly diminish as money is spent on the war. There will probably be no sudden drop, but the heavy national expenditure and the increased prices of food must be reflected in a decreased barrelage.

The Excise returns the output of beer for the first three months of the current financial year show an increase for the United Kingdom of 324,403 barrels, equal to 3.6 per cent., as compared with the output the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

In the world production of beer Germany ranks second to the United States, and the United Kingdom takes a third place. According to a Viennese calculation, 5,552,000 more hectolitres were produced throughout the world last year than in 1912, an increase which exceeded by 4,119.000 hectolitres, the production of 1911. The total figures for 1913 are:— 336,630,000 hectolitres of 22 gallons each, equal 205,718,000 English barrels, a quantity which is nearly six times as great as the production of the United Kingdom.

The taxes or duties levied the beer produced are estimated at £60,000,000, and this points to an average about of about 6s per barrel, which seems to be an over-estimate, says the circular.

It is claimed behalf of the brewing industry that it has contributed more men to the forces in the field than any other single industry. One Midland firm has sent 300 employes service. In every case situations are kept open, and the difference between army pay and the usual wages have been made up to dependents at an annual cost to the firm of £13,000."
Newcastle Journal - Saturday 03 October 1914, page 7.

Fascinating that the UK produced one sixth of the world's beer in 1913. It's not hard for us, with hindsight, to see what a dramatic impact the war would have on beer production in the top three producers: the USA, Germany and the UK. Compared to the other two - in both Germany and the USA beer production came to a complete stop, though for very different reasons - Britain got off lightly.

An average of 6s tax per barrel? Oh right, that's taken over the whole world. Here's the beer tax in Britain around WW I:

UK beer tax before, during and after WW I
Year	Total Tax £	Tax/Bulk Brl.	Tax/Std. Brl	price pint	tax pint	Tax (% retail price)
1914	13,622,971	7s 4d	7s 9d	3d	0.30d	10.08
1915	15,856,412	9s 1d	23s	3d	0.38d	12.67
1916	33,747,269	21s	23s	3d	0.88d	29.19
1917	31,567,940	20s 11d	24s	4d	0.87d	21.80
1918	19,108,663	20s	25s	4.5d	0.83d	18.54
1919	25,423,393	21s 10d	50s	5d	0.91d	18.21
1920	71,276,230	40s 8d	70s	6d	1.69d	28.25
1921	123,406,257	71s 6d	100s	7d	2.98d	42.58
Sources:
1928 Brewers' Almanack

By 1921 British brewers were paying twice as much beer tax as the whole world had in 1913. Almost 10 times tax as much as they had paid in 1914. That's a huge increase in anybody's terms.