Saturday 10 January 2015

German brewing in the 1970’s - statistics

I had so much fun with that Journal of the Institute of Brewing article about German brewing in the 1960’s that I’m starting on another. This time from a decade or so later.

It has the snappy title “Current Lager Beer Technology in Continental European Breweries and Especially in German Breweries” and was written by H. Kieninger, who worked at Weihenstephan.

You must have noticed by now how much I love numbers. The article starts with a load of good ones. But what makes them particularly illuminating is when they’re compared with their modern equivalents. They illustrate wonderfully the changes that have taken place in the last four decades.

You’ll notice that the EU was rather smaller back in those days.

“First I want to give you some statistical figures concerning European beer production and beer consumption in the different EEC countries.

Table I shows beer production in the nine countries of the EEC in 1973 and 1974. Production was decreasing in Den mark, Italy, Belgium and in France. There was only a small increase in beer production in Ireland, The Netherlands, Luxemburg and West Germany but in Great Britain beer production climbed from 60,565 million hl per year to 63,039 million hl per year. When expressed as a percentage of the total beer production, West Germany is followed by Great Britain and both countries together are producing 68.8% — more than two-thirds of the total beer production in the EEC countries.”
Journal of the Institute of Brewing, Volume 83, Issue 1, March-April 1977, page 72.

Here’s the table:

TABLE I. Beer Production in the EEC Countries in 1973 and 1974 (x 1,000 hl).
Country 1973 1974 % of total production (in 1974)
Denmark 8,917 8,465 3.7
Eire 6,040 6,085 2.7
Great Britain 60,565 63,039 27.8
Italy 8,629 8,015 3.5
Netherlands 11,066 11,642 5.1
Luxemburg 670 692 0.3
Belgium 14,691 14,004 6.2
France 21,939 21,712 9.6
West Germany 92,467 92,785 41
Total 224,984 226,409


And here are the production figures for the last few years:

Beer Production 2008 - 2013 (1,000 hl)
Country 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 % in 2013
Denmark 6,474 6,046 6,335 6,590 6,080 6,166 2.76%
Ireland 8,846 8,041 8,249 8,514 8,195 8,008 3.59%
United Kingdom 49,611 45,141 44,997 45,694 42,047 41,956 18.79%
Italy 13,273 12,776 12,814 13,410 13,293 13,256 5.94%
Netherlands* 27,181 25,376 24,218 23,644 24,271 23,636 10.59%
Luxembourg 312 308 310 302 292 281 0.13%
Belgium 17,796 18,009 18,122 18,571 18,751 18,069 8.09%
France 16,267 16,326 16,290 16,167 17,132 15,491 6.94%
Germany 99,910 98,078 95,683 95,545 94,618 94,365 42.27%
total
241,678 232,110 229,028 230,448 226,691 223,241
Source:
"Beer Statistics 2014 edition", Brewers of Europe, 2014, page 7.
* Only production of members Dutch Brewers association


You can see that the combined share of the UK and Germany has fallen to 61%, while the combined share of Belgium and The Netherlands has grown from 11.3% to 18.68%. Not sure what that tells us.

But the figures are much more interesting when you combine them:

Beer Production 1973 - 2013 (1,000 hl)
Country 1973 1974 2013 % change 1974 - 2013
Denmark 8,917 8,465 6,166 -27.16%
Ireland 6,040 6,085 8,008 31.60%
United Kingdom 60,565 63,039 41,956 -33.44%
Italy 8,629 8,015 13,256 65.39%
Netherlands 11,066 11,642 23,636 103.02%
Luxembourg 670 692 281 -59.39%
Belgium 14,691 14,004 18,069 29.03%
France 21,939 21,712 15,491 -28.65%
Germany 92,467 92,785 94,365 1.70%
total
224,984 226,409 223,241 -1.40%
Sources:
"Beer Statistics 2014 edition", Brewers of Europe, 2014, page 7.
Journal of the Institute of Brewing, Volume 83, Issue 1, March-April 1977, page 72.


What a coincidence that the total amount brewed in these nine countries was almost the same in 2013 as it had been 40 years earlier.

It’s quite a complicated picture. The Netherlands is easily the winner, producing twice as much beer in 2013 as in 1974. Italy, Ireland and Belgium also saw substantial increases in beer output. In the cases of The Netherlands, Ireland and Belgium it’s undoubtedly exports that have fuelled the growth. While in Italy it’s domestic consumption, as we’ll see when we look at consumption per capita.

The apparent modest growth in German production isn’t what it seems. The 1970’s figures are just for West Germany. You really need to add the approximately 17 million hl brewed in the DDR. I don’t have the DDR output figures for 1973 and 1974, but in 1970 16,642,000 hl were brewed there and in 1976 19,300,000 hl*. Assuming the total for all Germany is around 110 million hl., there’s really been a fall of around 14%.

In the countries with the biggest decrease – Denmark the UK and France – falling domestic demand was the main driving factor. Which our next lot of figures will demonstrate.

“Table II shows beer consumption per capita in the different EEC countries for the years 1960 and 1974 and the increases calculated as percentages. If you look at the absolute values for 1974, you will find West Germany with 147 litres at the top, followed, in order, by Belgium/Luxemburg, Ireland, Denmark and Great Britain. People in the Netherlands, France and Italy seem to drink much more of beverages other than beer and if you imagine that the consumption of liquid by the human body ranges between 600 and 700 litres per year, then beer must have the best chances for the future in these latter countries.”
Journal of the Institute of Brewing, Volume 83, Issue 1, March-April 1977, page 72.

Here’s the accompanying table:

TABLE II. Beer Consumption per capita in the EEC Countries (Litres).
Country 1960 1974 Increase (%)
Denmark 71.5 123.4 92.5
Eire 50.4 130 157.9
Great Britain 85.1 114.7 34.8
Italy 5.1 14.5 184.3
Netherlands 23.8 75.7 218
Belgium/Luxemburg 113.1 135 19.4
France 35.4 44.1 24.6
West Germany 94.7 147 55.2






And here are the modern numbers:

Beer consumption per capita 2008 - 2013
Country 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Denmark 78 72 69 68 64 64
Ireland 99 91 90 86 86 79
United Kingdom 84 76 74 74 67 66
Italy 29 28 29 30 29 29
Netherlands 79 73 72 72 72 70
Luxembourg 94 86 85 85 83 83
Belgium 82 81 78 78 74 72
France 31 31 31 31 31 30
Germany 111 110 107 107 108 107
Source:
"Beer Statistics 2014 edition", Brewers of Europe, 2014, page 11.


The Germans still lead the pack, unsurprisingly. Though everywhere except France and Italy, where things are very stable, consumption is declining. I’m shocked at the UK figures. For the first time I can remember it’s now behind The Netherlands.

Kieninger got it really wrong in the case of France. Consumption of beer has fallen there over the last four decades.

Now let’s nail those two sets of figures together:

Beer consumption per capita 1960 - 2013
Country 1960 1974 2013 % change 1960 - 2013 % change 1974 - 2013
Denmark 71.5 123.4 64 -10.49% -48.14%
Ireland 50.4 130 79 56.75% -39.23%
United Kingdom 85.1 114.7 66 -22.44% -42.46%
Italy 5.1 14.5 29 468.63% 100.00%
Netherlands 23.8 75.7 70 194.12% -7.53%
Luxembourg

83

Belgium 113.1 135 72 -36.34% -46.67%
France 35.4 44.1 30 -15.25% -31.97%
Germany 94.7 147 107 12.99% -27.21%
Average 59.9 98.1 66.7
Sources:
"Beer Statistics 2014 edition", Brewers of Europe, 2014, page 11.
Journal of the Institute of Brewing, Volume 83, Issue 1, March-April 1977, page 72.


In every single country except Italy consumption was lower in 2013 than in 1974. And in the countries with the largest drop – Denmark, the UK, Belgium and France  - consumption also fell between 1960 and 2013.

The figures also demonstrate how The Netherlands wasn’t really much of a beer drinking country in 1960. I wish I had the numbers for jenever consumption for comparison purposes. I would guess that has declined considerably.

It’s interesting to see how the differences between countries are flattening out. Denmark, the UK, The Netherlands, and Belgium are all pretty close and also close to the overall average.

I haven’t even got past the first page of the article yet. Prepare yourselves for a long slog.




* Brauwelt 50/2002

1 comment:

DonS said...

Tables only tell part of the story. A histogram in bar-chart form for Germany would likely show year-on-year growth until the mid-1990s, then a steady decline. Or at least I think it would.